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Tipping Through Rapid Rewiring in an Epidemic Model by Kasey Stern ’21

Tue, May 11th, 2021
2:30 pm
- 3:15 pm

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Tipping Through Rapid Rewiring in an Epidemic Model by Kasey Stern ’21, Mathematics Senior Thesis Defense, Tuesday, May 11, 2:30 – 3:15 pm, live talk can be accessed at https://williams.zoom.us/j/97617951870.

Abstract:  Infectious disease transmission through a population depends pivotally on the interactions between individuals.  Motivated by the COVID-19 pandemic, this thesis investigates how changing the rate at which individuals change their connections can lead to the rapid extinction of a disease.  It looks at the impact of rate-induced tipping on the rewiring rate in a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model.  Rate-induced tipping is a jump between states in a dynamical system caused by rapidly changing the parameters.  A high rewiring rate can greatly increase the epidemic threshold and decrease the frequency or likelihood of a pandemic.  I look at the impact changing the rewiring rate of linkages between nodes in my network has on the state of the disease.  Applying rate-induced tipping, the speed at which the rewiring rate changes can cause a disease to jump from an endemic state to one in which the disease is no longer a pandemic and may be eliminated.  My work introduces rate-induced tipping into the epidemiological sphere and provides the groundwork for future research.

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