Transboundary Management Under Alternative Objectives With Applications to Diseases by Prof. Julie Blackwood, Friday, February 21, 1 – 1:45 pm, Stetson Court Classroom 105, Faculty Colloquium
Abstract: Public health policy is inextricably linked with the allocation of regulatory authority between different levels of government. While infectious disease dynamics are in general well-understood, few modeling studies have considered spatially heterogeneous populations that fall under multiple administrative jurisdictions and hence under levels of government with potentially differing objectives. We pose and numerically analyze a two-patch SIRS-type model that explicitly incorporates migration and allows managers to choose between vaccination, isolation, medication, border closure, and a travel ban on infected individuals while aiming to minimize either the number of patients or the number of deaths. In particular, we consider three classes of manager: a central government that acts equitably, local governments that act selfishly, and a non-governmental organization that seeks to maximize the overall good. Generally, vaccination is best if available; if not, medication and quarantine also perform relatively well. We further identify situations, such as unilaterally applied travel restrictions, where interventions lead to an overall increase in cases and deaths. We establish general guidelines for optimal governance that can be tailored to specific situations.