Combining Predictions from Different Sources by Prof. Ville Satopaa, INSEAD

Combining Predictions from Different Sources by Prof. Ville Satopaa, INSEAD, Wednesday September 18, 1:00 – 1:50pm, Bronfman Auditorium, Statistics Colloquium, Class of 1960 Scholars

Abstract: Accurate predictions are essential for informed decision-making in areas such as finance, healthcare, and policy development. The ‘Wisdom of the Crowd’ phenomenon suggests that aggregating multiple predictions often yields greater accuracy than relying on a single prediction. However, the effectiveness of this aggregation heavily depends on the chosen method, such as the simple average or median. This presentation will examine various sources of heterogeneity among predictions, demonstrate how the dominant source influences the optimal aggregation method, and discuss cutting-edge approaches to forecast aggregation.